Shanghai Development Research Foundation (SDRF) and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Shanghai Representative Office jointly organize a two-day international symposium “2018 Shanghai Symposium on Global Finance — Changes of Pattern in Global Finance and their Implications”.
Agenda：
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Monday, October 15th 2018 |
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8:30-9:00 |
Registration (3rd Floor, Concord Room) |
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9:00-10:00 |
Opening |
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9:00-9:10 |
Opening remarks by organizers:
Hu Yanzhao Former Vice Mayor of Shanghai; Chairman, SDRF
Stefan Pantekoek Chief Representative of the Shanghai Representative Office of FES
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9:10-10:00 |
Keynote Speeches：
“The Evolution Pattern and Risk Implication of American and Japanese Government Debt in Recent Ten Years”
Huang Qifan Former Vice Chairman of the NPC's Financial and Economic Affairs Committee
“Lingering Challenges from the Post-Crisis Decade”
John Lipsky Former Deputy Managing Director of IMF; Professor, Johns Hopkins University
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10:00-10:05 |
Brief Introduction of SDRF Research Report:
“Changes of Pattern in Global Finance and China's Integration into Global Financial System”
Moderator: Qiao Yide, Vice Chairman & Secretary General, SDRF
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10:05-10:30 |
Group Photo & Coffee Break |
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10:30-12:30 |
Session 1: New Challenges in Global Financial System |
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Although the world economy has started to recover, it faces several new challenges in global financial system, such as the increasing risk of trade war, the historically high leverage of non-financial sector, soaring global asset prices, unstable exchange rates and capital flows, the rising inequality and populism in advanced countries and huge uncertainties in geopolitics, all of which could jeopardize the sustainability of current recovery of the world economy. Moderator: Stefan Pantekoek, Chief Representative of the Shanghai Representative Office of FES |
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10:30-10:45 |
"Ten Years after Global Financial Crisis : Increasing Risks and Decreasing Cooperation"
Hyun Jung Taik Visiting Professor, International School of Global Studies, Inha University, Incheon Korea |
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10:45-11:00 |
“International Imbalances, Trade Wars and International Adjustment Mechanisms”
Jan Kregel Levy Economic Institute of Bard College, New York |
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11:00-11:15 |
“New Challenges in the Global Financial System – A European Perspective”
Steffen Kern Chief Economist and Head of Risk Analysis, European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), Paris
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11:15-11:30 |
“Managing Capital Flows: Toward a Policy Vademecum”
Jonathan D. Ostry Deputy Director of the Research Department, IMF |
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11:30-11:45 |
“Global Financial Cycles and Emerging Markets in Turmoil” Zhang Liqing
Dean, School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics (CUFE), Beijing |
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11:45-12:30 |
Discussion |
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12:30-14:00 |
Lunch (City Bistro, the 2nd Floor, Shanghai Marriott Hotel Riverside) |
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14:00-15:45 |
Session 2: Central Banking after the Crisis and Spillover Effects of Monetary Policy |
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After the global financial crisis, the role of various central banks has been significantly strengthened. For example, unconventional monetary policies and macro prudential policies were generally implemented; central banks have also played a role in financial surveillance. What impacts of these changes have already had or will have on the global economy and finance? There is consensus that unconventional monetary policies in the ‘acute’ phase of the crisis helped to prevent a second Great Depression. However, since the US started to withdraw QE in 2015, many developing countries have experienced severe currency depreciations and capital outflows. How to identify the positive and negative spillover effects of monetary policies after the crisis? What actions should developing countries take against the external shocks while developed countries normalizing their monetary policies? Moderator: Edmond Alphandery, Chairman of the Euro50 Group |
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14:00-14:15 |
"Central Banking After the Crisis: Walking on Two Legs"
Gerald Epstein Co-Director of the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts, Amherst
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14:15-14:30 |
“Central Banking since the Crisis: East and West”
Lawrence Goodman President of the Center for Financial Stability (CFS), New York
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14:30-14:45 |
“Can Central Banks Manage Financial Crises on Their Own? India from 2008 to 2018”
Jayati Ghosh Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
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14:45-15:00 |
“Currency Crises in Emerging Markets under the Global Liquidity Shortage”
Yao Yudong Chief Economist, Da Cheng Fund Management
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15:00-15:15 |
“Changes of the Mechanism of Monetary Policy Spillover”
He Zhiren Research Fellow, SDRF
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15:15-15:45 |
Discussion |
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15:45-16:00 |
Coffee Break |
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16:00-17:30 |
Session 3: Leverage, Real Economy and Financial Markets |
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The leverage of non-financial sectors continued to rise after the crisis and has reached the historical level. For developing countries, credit of non-financial corporates which usually involves currency mismatch has expanded rapidly. For advanced countries, high leverage of governments imply potential risks. What does this situation imply for the global economy and financial markets? What are the future trends of macro-leverage ratios in major countries? What should governments deal with the related challenges?
Moderator: Shao Yu, Chief Economist, Oriental Securities |
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16:00-16:15 |
“Incomplete Financial Market Regulation and the Increasing Risk of a New Global Recession”
Hansjörg Herr Emeritus professor, Berlin School of Economics and Law
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16:15-16:30 |
“Rising Corporate Debt: Peril or Promise?”
Diana Goldstein Senior Specialist in Financial Market, McKinsey Global Institute, (D.C)
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16:30-16:45 |
“A Structural View on China’s Debt Burden”
Wang Han Chief Macro Analyst, Industrial Securities Co.
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16:45-17:00 |
“The Roadmap of China Economy’s Deleveraging”
Liu Haiying Chief Economist, Shanghai Suntime Wealth; Research Fellow, SDRF
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17:00-17:30 |
Discussion |
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End of Day 1 |
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Tuesday, October 16th 2018 |
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9:00-10:30 |
Session 4: The Exchange Rate and Cross-border Capital Flow |
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Several developing countries have experienced currency crashes in 2018, which related to dollar appreciation and capital flight. The BIS report shows that the average daily global foreign exchange turnover in April 2016 exceeded 100 times the average daily global trade volume in the same period, reflecting the further deviation between the finance and real economy after the global financial crisis. On the other side, the data from IMF show that the size and volatility of cross-border capital flows have declined on the level but has increased for developing countries. Does it imply the global financial imbalance instead of the global trade imbalance has become a more important issue? Should capital control remain in the macro policy toolkit for developing countries?
Moderator: Zhang Yong, Research Fellow, the Comprehensive Research Institute of Shanghai FTZ, Fudan University |
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09:00-09:15 |
“Deepened Financial Integration and Vulnerabilities of the Global South”
Yılmaz Akyüz Former Director of the Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, UNCTAD
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09:15-09:30 |
“The Exchange Rate and Cross-border Capital Flow”
Leslie Maasdorp Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, New Development Bank (NDB)
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09:30-09:45 |
“Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism: the Role of Countercyclical Factor”
Xiao Lisheng Deputy Head, Department of International Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Beijing
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09:45-10:00 |
“Impact of Dollar Index on CNY and CNH: What High Frequency Data Tell us”
Ding Jianping Deputy Dean, Shanghai Institute of International Finance Center, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE)
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10:00-10:30 |
Discussion |
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10:30-10:45 |
Coffee Break |
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10:45-12:15 |
Session 5: “Dual Pillar” of Macro-Policy and Financial Opening up in China |
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After the global financial crisis, the G20 proposed a macroprudential policy framework. For China, the report to the 19th CPC National Congress clearly pointed out the "dual pillar" of macro-policy. In this context, how should China further improve the transmission of monetary policy? How to coordinate the monetary policy and the fiscal policy? What are implications of continuing financial opening in China? How should China implement its exchange policy and management of cross-border capital flows? Moderator: Zhang Liping, Former Chairman, Guosheng Group; Vice Chairman, SDRF |
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10:45-11:00 |
“The Evolution and Challenges of the Monetary Policy Tools and Regulatory Policy Framework of the PBC after the Crisis”
Liu Jianfeng Shanghai Jiao Tong University
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11:00-11:15 |
“Unclogging the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy”
Lu Zhengwei Chief Economist, Industrial Bank
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11:15-11:30 |
“China’s Bond Market Going Global”
Alfred Schipke Chief Representative of IMF in Beijing
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11:30-11:45 |
“The Role of International Rating Agencies in China’s Financial Market Development”
Paul Gruenwald Chief Economist, S&P Global
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11:45-12:20 |
Discussion |
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12:20-12:30 |
Closing Remarks by Organizers:
Stefan Pantekoek Chief Representative of the Shanghai Representative Office of FES
Qiao Yide Vice Chairman & Secretary General, SDRF |
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End of Symposium |
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